Smart Battery
passed deal
Smart Battery Analytics - Deal Memo
Date Reviewed: January 8, 2026 Stage: Pre-Seed Source: Pitch Deck
Summary
One-liner: AI-driven QA software that predicts battery failures and visualizes thermal/degradation problems for US battery pack assemblers.
Founders:
- David Ventura (CEO) - Finance and marketing background, sales and team management experience
- Mehran Dibaji (CTO) - AI/ML PhD from MIT, battery analytics experience
Round:
- Raising: $1M
- Stage: Pre-Seed
- Terms: Not specified in deck
Key Metrics:
- $0 Revenue (targeting first revenues Dec 2025)
- MVP 50% complete
- 3 manufacturers under NDA (2 auto OEMs, 1 Data Center OEM)
- DOE SBIR Phase 1 Grant anticipated ($250K)
Investment Thesis
1000x Opportunity?
NO - This is explicitly a small-exit play
The deck explicitly states their exit strategy:
- "SMART is targeting an exit to a Client or Competitor once we hit $10M ARR"
- "Manufacturing SaaS Valuation: 5-8x ARR = $50M Exit"
This is fundamentally incompatible with the 1000x thesis. At best case:
- $1M invested at presumably ~$5-10M valuation
- $50M exit = 5-10x return maximum
- This is a lifestyle/modest exit company, not an outlier
Market size analysis:
- TAM: $72B US battery production market (reasonable)
- SAM: $21B serviceable market
- SOM: $1-2B obtainable (5-10% of SAM)
- But they're explicitly capping ambition at $10M ARR
Red flag: Founders who articulate a $50M exit ceiling are not building for 1000x. They're optimizing for a modest outcome.
Kingmaker Fit?
WEAK FIT
- CTO network: Battery pack assemblers and manufacturing OEMs are not the typical CTO network (software/tech CTOs). Limited overlap.
- Technical scaling: This is industrial IoT / manufacturing software, not the AI/infrastructure plays where DeepMind network matters.
- GTM: Trade show and direct outreach strategy doesn't leverage existing relationships.
- ICP: Selling to manufacturing operations teams, not CTOs/VP R&D in software companies.
The 800+ CTO list is software/tech focused. Battery manufacturing is a different buyer entirely.
Green Flags
- MIT PhD CTO - Mehran Dibaji has credible technical background in AI/ML and battery analytics
- DOE SBIR Grant - Government validation and non-dilutive funding ($250K anticipated)
- Strong timing thesis - Battery production 3x by 2030, field failures cost billions (GM Bolt = $1.8B)
- Clear ICP - Well-defined target customer (US battery pack assemblers)
- Existing NDAs - 3 manufacturers in discussions including 2 auto OEMs
- Differentiated positioning - In-line QA vs post-failure analysis, faster ROI than EU competitors
- Experienced advisor - Aaron Hageman has 8-figure exit to Fortune 10
Red Flags
- Explicit small-exit mindset - "$50M exit at $10M ARR" is the stated goal. Not a 1000x opportunity.
- Pre-revenue, pre-product - MVP only 50% complete, no paying customers yet
- CEO background unclear - David Ventura has finance/marketing background but no clear battery industry or startup scaling experience
- Large team for stage - 6 people (CEO, CTO, Head of Product, CFO, CMO, Advisor) before product-market fit
- No technical moat articulated - "AI-driven" is generic; unclear what's defensible
- Slow sales cycle - Manufacturing enterprise sales are notoriously long (6-18 months)
- Competition from well-funded EU players - Accure, Twaice, Voltaiq have head start
- Fragmented customer base - US battery pack assemblers is a niche within a niche
- No founder-market fit signal - No indication founders have deep battery industry relationships
- Lifestyle exit framing - "Exit to client or competitor at $10M ARR" suggests lack of ambition for category dominance
Competitive Analysis
| Company | Funding | Focus | Differentiation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accure | Well-funded | Post-failure analysis | Safety focus, EU market |
| Twaice | Well-funded | Design simulation | EU focus, pre-production |
| Voltaiq | Well-funded | Design simulation | Global, performance optimization |
| Smart Battery | Raising $1M | In-line QA | US focus, faster ROI |
Challenge: Smart Battery is entering a market where well-funded EU competitors exist. Their differentiation (US focus, in-line vs post-failure) is geographic/timing rather than fundamental technical moat.
Key Questions
Team
- What is David Ventura's prior startup experience? Previous exits?
- How did the founding team meet? How long have they worked together?
- Why do they believe $50M exit is the right ambition level?
- What's the equity split among the 6 team members?
Market
- How long is the typical sales cycle with battery manufacturers?
- Who are the 3 manufacturers under NDA? Are any close to pilot?
- What's the competitive response from Accure/Twaice if they enter US market?
Product
- What's the technical differentiation beyond "AI-driven"?
- What data do you need access to? How do manufacturers feel about data sharing?
- What's the path from MVP to production-ready?
Financials
- What's the valuation for this $1M raise?
- What milestones will this $1M achieve?
- Path to $360K-$600K ARR in Year 1 - how many pilots needed?
Decision
PASS - Does not meet 1000x criteria
Rationale
This deal fails the initial filter on both dimensions:
1000x test: FAIL
- Founders explicitly state $50M exit target at $10M ARR
- 5-8x ARR multiple in manufacturing SaaS is their ceiling
- At $1M investment at presumably $5-10M valuation, best case is 5-10x
- This is fundamentally a modest-exit company by design
Kingmaker test: WEAK
- Battery manufacturing buyers are not in the CTO network
- Industrial IoT/manufacturing software is outside core expertise
- Trade show GTM doesn't leverage existing relationships
Additional concerns:
- Pre-revenue, pre-product with large team
- No clear technical moat
- CEO doesn't have obvious founder-market fit
- Competitive pressure from well-funded EU players
What would change my mind
- Founders articulate a path to $1B+ outcome (category dominance, not quick exit)
- Technical moat beyond "AI-driven" - proprietary models, data flywheel, patents
- CEO has deep battery industry relationships or prior exits
- Evidence of obsessive founder conviction (George/Alex quality)
- Kingmaker angle emerges (e.g., specific CTO connections in battery space)
Appendix
Market Size
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Global Battery Production 2024 | 1.45 TWh ($104B) |
| Global Battery Production 2030 | 5 TWh ($360B) |
| US TAM | $72B |
| US SAM | $21B |
| US SOM | $1-2B |
| YoY Growth | 22% |
Team
| Name | Role | Background |
|---|---|---|
| David Ventura | CEO | Finance, Marketing, Sales |
| Mehran Dibaji | CTO | AI/ML PhD from MIT, Battery Analytics |
| Justin White | Head of Product | 0-to-1 SaaS, PMF |
| David Shea | CFO | Financial modeling, US battery manufacturers |
| Robyn DeTorres | CMO | B2B branding, lead gen |
| Aaron Hageman | Advisor | 8-figure exit to Fortune 10 |
Documents
attachments/Smart_Battery New Deck.pdf- Pitch Deck
Smart Battery Analytics - Contacts
Founders
| Name | Role | Phone | Calendar | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Ventura | CEO | — | — | — | |
| Mehran Dibaji | CTO | — | — | MIT Page | — |
Team
| Name | Role |
|---|---|
| Justin White | Head of Product |
| David Shea | CFO |
| Robyn DeTorres | CMO |
| Aaron Hageman | Advisor |
Related Contacts
| Name | Role | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| — | — | — |
Relationship Timeline
| Date | Type | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | Deck review | Initial review — PASS |
Last Touchpoint
Date: January 2026 Status: PASS — $50M exit ceiling, not 1000x Next Action: None planned
Smart Battery Analytics - Notes
Running log of communications, meetings, and Q&As. New entries at top.
December 23, 2025
Type: Email Thread Summary: Gmail conversation with founder David Ventura
From Steven (Dec 23, 2025):
- Had scheduled meeting (Dec 26), but canceled due to being sick from Taiwan
- Asked: 1) Are you actively fundraising? 2) Can I have your investor deck and booking link?
From David Ventura (Dec 23, 2025):
"Hi Steven, 1. yes, please find deck attached (update to traction slide: first revenues expected q1 2026) 2. https://calendly.com/david-smartbatteryanalytics Hope you get better soon, have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!"
Key Takeaways:
- Deck provided with updated traction slide
- First revenues expected Q1 2026 (confirms pre-revenue status)
- Calendly link provided for rescheduling
Contact Info:
- Name: David Ventura
- Title: Founder / CEO
- Email: david@smartbatteryanalytics.com
- Phone: (949) 296-0405
- Website: SMARTBatteryAnalytics.com
- Location: Orange County, CA
- Calendar: https://calendly.com/david-smartbatteryanalytics
Status: PASS (see decision below)
January 8, 2026
Type: Initial Review Summary: Reviewed pitch deck and completed Tier 1 due diligence.
Key Observations:
- Pre-revenue, MVP 50% complete
- Raising $1M for pre-seed
- Team includes MIT PhD CTO (Mehran Dibaji)
- 3 manufacturers under NDA
- DOE SBIR Phase 1 grant anticipated ($250K)
Decision: PASS - Does not meet 1000x criteria. Founders explicitly target $50M exit at $10M ARR.
Follow-ups: None planned unless thesis changes.